WHO:豚インフルエンザ ”ピークを過ぎたというには早すぎる”

WHOは、”年内はピーク終焉予測はしない”　とのこと

さすが・・・お役人(WHO・・・といえど）・・・誰の目にも明らかになったときに、宣言？

確かに、アジアかぜ（１９５７－１９５８）のUSパターンに類似するとすれば、１－２月にもう一度ピークがやってくる可能性もある。

WHO: It's too early to say pandemic has peaked
Robert Roos News Editor

Dec 3, 2009 (CIDRAP News)

The World Health Organization's (WHO's) top influenza expert said today it's too soon to judge whether the H1N1 influenza pandemic has passed its peak, though he acknowledged that cases are dropping in the United States and Canada.


"It's too early to say whether activity is peaking in the Northern Hemisphere, and it's not possible to predict what will happen in the spring," said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, special adviser to the WHO director-general on pandemic flu.



In response to questions, Fukuda said it's premature for the WHO to start formal discussions on whether the pandemic has crested. "In some countries there are still increasing infections, even though there are some countries, such as the United States and Canada, where infections are going down," he said.



Formal discussions on whether the pandemic is waning won't come until "sometime in 2010," he said.

そろそろピークを過ぎたという話があるからこういう発表があるのだろう・・・

米国トレンド(2009.11.21まで）

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#iligraph


日本(-2009.11.22まで）


インフルエンザ：南半球の流行トレンドを重ねてみた・・2009年 12月 03日

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他の情報ソース（FRIDAY, Dec. 4 (HealthDay News) ：　Swine Flu Continues to Wane ）では、Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, director（ U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention）は、１９５７－１９５８のパンデミックでは、学年のスタートと共に増加しその後減少そして、再び、１２月から２月まで急増した・・・とのこと

1957年８月ワクチン供給でき、若年・子どもが特に多くかかり、老人はかなりの死亡率が増加した。USでは９－１２でピークとなり、１－２月が第２波が生じた。

http://lhncbc.nlm.nih.gov/apdb/phsHistory/health_news.html

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Map: International Co-circulation of 2009 H1N1 and Seasonal Influenza
(As of November 28, 2009; posted December 04, 2009, 5:00 PM ET)

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/international/map.htm